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Jobless Claims – Here We Go Again!
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!
An unexpected rise in jobless claims hits us right in the face as filings for unemployment benefits surged to 473,000. It had fallen the previous week and we thought that there was a little light at the end of the unemployment tunnel. It is looking like the labor market is not going to see the improvement this year as was expected.
While analysts expected a small decline, we actually saw an increase by about 31,000 to that horrific number of 473,000. The drop of 41,000 last week was a nice life in the labor market… a market that has lost 8.4 million jobs since December 2007, the start of the recession.
Time to reboot and refigure the jobs market once again.Jobless Claims – Here We Go Again!
Snow Causes Rise in Jobless Claims
Heavy snow caused layoffs increasing jobless claims to 468,000 as unemployment lines got just a little longer. Count that and add in that many state agencies were closed due to the extreme weather and you have the perfect storm as the backlock jam is in the process of getting cleared up.
Instead of the Wall Street analysis number being 455,000 claims rose by 22,000 to the 468,000 number. I guess there is no accounting in down town New York for the weather. Construction companies all along the middle and upper east coast were halted by the weather as well as other weather sensitive related companies.
In addition to the new found additional 22,000, the four week average, used to maintain some semblance of lack of volatility, rose by 6,000 making the total out of work an additional 30,000. That’s a bad figure as it appears that companies are continuing to cut back on their employees.
Among the states, North Carolina had biggest increase in claims, with 5,897, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction, furniture and mining industries. Pennsylvania and Kentucky also reported large increases. The state data lags initial claims by one week.
California reported the largest drop in claims, with 5,540, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in services. Illinois, New York, Texas and Missouri recorded the next largest decreases.
There is increased hope that the new jobs bill will begin to level out the unemployment numbers and make some progress towards the positive as opposed to the increased unemployment numbers that are still trending the wrong way.
Finally some good news!!
New Jobless Claims Fall to 521,000, Lowest Since January
to a seasonally adjusted 521,000, from the previous week's upwardly revised total of 554,000.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
The number of newly laid-off workers filing first-time claims for jobless benefits fell to the lowest level since early January, as layoffs ease a bit amid a fledgling economic recovery.
The fourth drop in new claims in five weeks is a sign the labor market is slowly healing. But employers are reluctant to hire new workers and the unemployment rate is expected to keep climbing well into next year.
The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance dropped last week to a seasonally adjusted 521,000, from the previous week's upwardly revised total of 554,000.
That's better than the 540,000 that Wall Street economists expected, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell to 539,750, the lowest since Jan. 17.
Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers.
Thursday's total is the second lowest this year. Claims have been slowly declining since the spring, but remain well above the 325,000 that economists say is consistent with a healthy economy.
The number of people continuing to claim benefits declined by 72,000 to 6.04 million. Analysts expected continuing claims to rise slightly.
When federal emergency programs are included, the total number of jobless benefit recipients dropped by about 90,000 to 8.9 million in the week that ended Sept. 19, the latest data available. Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states, and is considering adding another 13 weeks.
More job cuts were announced this week. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., which makes industrial and scientific equipment, said it will close a plant in Dubuque, Iowa, next year, costing 350 jobs.
Among the states, California had the largest increase in claims, with 4,467, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction and service industries. Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and Tennessee had the next largest increases. State data lag the initial claims figures by one week.
New York had the largest drop in claims, with 2,253, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in construction and services. North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida had the next largest declines.
Jobless Rate Climbs to 9.8 Percent in September
FOXNews.com
Friday, October 02, 2009
The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September as employers cut far more jobs than expected, evidence that the longest recession since the 1930s is still inflicting widespread pain.
The official jobless rate stopped short of topping 10 percent only because the Labor Department doesn't count people who have given up looking for work or settled for part-time jobs.
More than a half-million unemployed people gave up looking for work last month. If laid-off workers who have settled for part-time work or have given up looking for new jobs are included, the unemployment rate rose to 17 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.
The Labor Department said Friday that the economy lost a net total of 263,000 jobs last month, up from a downwardly revised 201,000 in August. That's above Wall Street economists' expectations of 180,000 job losses, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The unemployment rate rose from 9.7 percent in August, matching expectations.
All told, 15.1 million Americans are now out of work, the department said. And more than 7.1 million jobs have been eliminated since the recession began in December 2007.
The figures pose a serious problem for President Obama, who had claimed his $787 billion stimulus bill would keep the unemployment rate below 8 percent in an effort to get it passed earlier this year. Now Republicans, who were nearly unified in opposing the spending package, are using the latest figures as evidence that the stimulus failed.
"Since President Obama signed his stimulus bill into law, millions of Americans have found themselves out of work," House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, R-Va., said in a written statement released just minutes after the report came out.
"Continued job loss does not equal success despite claims to the contrary, and the American people deserve stronger economic leadership," he continued. "Families across the country are struggling to cut costs and cope with a tough job market, and they see a massive disconnect between that reality and the President's claim of success and continued spending."
Vice President Biden defended the stimulus package Friday, saying the economy would be in far worse shape without it. But he added that while the pace of layoffs has slowed, the Obama administration is not satisfied.
"We don't think that less bad is good," he said from the White House. "Less bad is not our measure of success. One job lost is one job too many and too much pain."
Biden said efforts to accelerate stimulus spending need to be "redoubled" in the weeks ahead.
"Today's bad news does not change my confidence in the fact that we are going to recover," he said. "We will be producing jobs, the American economy and the job engine is going to be created and moving once again and I believe we're doing the right things to move things in the right direction."
But House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, called on Democrats to "scrap their job-killing agenda and act in a bipartisan way to put Americans back to work."
"With roughly three million private sector jobs lost since the 'stimulus' was enacted, Americans can't be blamed for asking, 'where are the jobs?'" Boehner said in a written statement.
"Instead of coming to their senses, Democrats are pressing ahead with, among other costly proposals, a national energy tax and a government takeover of health care," he added. "Make no mistake, these initiatives would destroy jobs and place additional burdens on working families and small businesses."
GOP Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana cited the figures in his call for fiscal discipline and tax relief for working families, small businesses and family farms.
"As unemployment continues to climb, we are reminded again that wasteful government spending is not the solution to what ails the economy," he said in a written statement.
Many analysts expect the economy grew at a healthy clip in the July-September quarter, technically ending the recession, but few think the recovery will be strong enough to lower the jobless rate. Most economists expect the rate to top 10 percent and keep climbing.
The economy has received a boost from the Cash for Clunkers auto rebate program and other government stimulus efforts, but many economists believe that growth will slow in the current quarter and early next year as the impact of those programs fade.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that even if the economy were to grow at a 3 percent pace in the coming quarters, it would not be enough to quickly drive down the unemployment rate. Bernanke said the rate is likely to remain above 9 percent through the end of 2010.
Persistently high unemployment could weaken the recovery as consumers, concerned about their jobs and incomes, restrain spending. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the nation's economy.
Hourly earnings rose by a penny last month, while weekly wages fell $1.54 to $616.11.
The average hourly work week fell back to a record low of 33 in September, the department said. That figure is important because economists are looking for companies to add more hours for current workers before they hire new ones.
The uncertainty that surrounds the recovery has made employers reluctant to hire. The Business Roundtable, a group of CEOs from large corporations, said earlier this week that only 13 percent of its members expect to increase hiring over the next six months.
While job losses have slowed since the first quarter of this year when they averaged 691,000 a month, the cuts actually worsened last month in many sectors compared with August.
Construction jobs fell by 64,000, more than the 60,000 eliminated in August. And service sector companies cut 147,000 jobs, more than double the 69,000 in the previous month. Retailers lost 38,500 jobs, compared to less than 9,000 in August.
Temporary help agencies eliminated 1,700 jobs, down from the previous month, but still a sign of labor market weakness. Economists see temporary jobs as a leading indicator, as employers are likely to hire temp workers before permanent ones.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Job cuts slowing: New unemployment claims drop unexpectedly to 545K
Thursday, September 17th 2009, 8:40 AM
Better than expected numbers from the Labor Department may be a sign that unemployment is slowing.
WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since early July, evidence that job cuts are slowing.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to a seasonally adjusted 545,000 from an upwardly revised 557,000 the previous week. Wall Street economists expected claims to rise by 5,000, according to Thomson Reuters.
The decline is the third in the past four weeks. The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, dropped 8,750 to 563,000. Despite the improvement, that's far above the 325,000 per week that is typical in a healthy economy.
The number of people claiming benefits for more than a week rose by 129,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.2 million. The continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.
When federal extended benefits are included, 9.01 million people received unemployment insurance in the week ending Aug. 29. That's down from 9.16 million the previous week. Congress has added up to 53 weeks of extended benefits on top of the 26 weeks provided by the states.
Thursday's report comes a day after the Federal Reserve said production by the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased for the second straight month in August, the latest sign the economy is recovering.
But the economy isn't improving fast enough to spur greater hiring. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday said the recession is likely over, though he noted that the economy isn't likely to grow fast enough to lower unemployment anytime soon.
The jobless rate is widely expected to peak next year above 10 percent, up from its current 9.7 percent. Some analysts say that claims need to drop below 400,000 before the unemployment rate will start to decline.
More job cuts were announced this week. Drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. said Monday that it will cut 5,500 jobs over the next two years, 14 percent of its work force, as it restructures the company into five business units.
Among the states, Washington had the largest increase in claims of 4,546, which it attributed to greater layoffs in the construction, public administration, and manufacturing industries. The next largest increases were in Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Illinois. The state data lag initial claims by a week.
California had the largest drop in claims of 2,751. The next largest decreases were in New York, Wisconsin, Texas and New Jersey.
New Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected to 550,000
Indicating that companies are laying off fewer workers, first time claims for jobless benefits fell more than was originally expected last week.
According to statistics from the Labor Department and using seasonally adjusted numbers, jobless claims fell to 550,000 which is 10,000 less than many analysts expected.
Although the amount of people receiving benefits fell it is still at about 6.1 million and that is the lowest since April of this year. 159,000 people stopped receiving benefits this past week.
Although we are seeing a bit of positive news, the number of jobless are well above what we would have in a health economy and the numbers indicate that there is a need for more jobs.
First-Time Jobless Claims Fall to 570,000, Continuing Claims Drop
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for jobless benefits dropped last week, and the number of people remaining on the rolls also fell, evidence that layoffs have eased.
Still, both figures remain above levels associated with a healthy economy, and analysts expect the unemployment rate to keep rising.
The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time unemployment claims fell to a seasonally-adjusted 570,000, down from an upwardly revised figure of 580,000 the previous week. Analysts expected a slightly larger drop to 565,000, according to Thomson Reuters.
The tally of those continuing to claim benefits dropped to 6.13 million from 6.25 million in the previous week, the lowest level since early April. The figures on continuing claims lag initial claims by a week.
Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers.
While the figures are volatile, first-time claims have trended downward in recent months. Initial claims topped 600,000 for most of this year, until falling below that level in early July.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out fluctuations, fell by 4,750 to 566,250 last week. That's about 90,000 below its peak for the current recession, in early April.
The weekly figures remain far above the roughly 325,000 that analysts say is consistent with a healthy economy. New claims last fell below 300,000 in early 2007.
Job losses have slowed recently. The department said earlier this month that companies cut 247,000 jobs in July, a large amount but still the smallest number in almost a year.
The unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5 percent, its first drop in 15 months. But Obama economic adviser Christina Romer predicted Tuesday that unemployment could reach 10 percent this year and average 9.8 percent next year.
The recession, which began in December 2007 and is the worst since World War II, has eliminated a net total of 6.7 million jobs.
And when federal emergency programs are included, the total number of jobless benefit recipients was 9.19 million people in the week that ended Aug. 8. That was up from 9.18 million in the previous week. Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states.
The large number of people remaining on the rolls is an indication that unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs.
More job cuts were announced this week. Columbus, Ind.-based Cummins Filtration, a division of diesel engine manufacturer Cummins Inc., said it will eliminate about 400 jobs through next March as it shifts production of filter assemblies to a Mexican plant.
Among the states, Michigan reported the largest increase in initial claims, with 4,068, which it attributed to layoffs in the auto industry. The state data lags the initial claims data by one week.
Pennsylvania, Florida, Puerto Rico and Missouri had the next largest increases.
California reported the largest decrease in claims of 6,286, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in the service industries. Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin and Ohio had the next largest drops.
New Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly to 558,000
Unexpectedly claims for unemployment benefits filed by newly laid workers rose last week as the number of continuing claims continued their decline. Fortunately they remain below the high of 600,000 where they have been all year for the most part. This news is seen by economists as a decline in layoffs.
The numbers are still about 15,000 higher than the expected 545,000.
The unemployment rate is still above what is comfortable at 9.4 percent and that is down from 9.5 percent which is the first time it has dropped in the past 15 months.
Among the states, Alabama had the largest increase in claims, with 721. The next largest increases were in Washington, Nebraska, Kentucky and Delaware. The state data lag initial claims by one week.
California reported the largest drop in claims, of 7,258, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in the service industry. Michigan, Tennessee, Florida and Georgia had the next largest decreases.
Now Hiring: Everywhere You Didn't Want to Work
AP
Many laid-off Americans are lining up for some of the most unsavory jobs imaginable.
Some of the dirtiest, smelliest, most dangerous jobs are suddenly looking a lot more appealing in this economy.
People who have been out of work for months are lining up for jobs at places they once considered unthinkable: slaughterhouses, sewage plants, prisons.
"I have to just shut my mouth because I can't do anything about it," said Nichole McRoberts of Sedalia, Mo., who pictured more for herself at age 30 than working in a poultry plant, cutting diseased or damaged flesh off chicken carcasses.
Recessions and tight job markets always force some people to take less-desirable or lower-paying work than they are used to. But this recession has been the most punishing job destroyer in at least 60 years, slashing a net total of 6.7 million jobs.
All told, 14.5 million people were out of work last month, with a jobless rate of 9.4 percent. The result is that many people have had to seek jobs they would not have considered in the past.
Take Kristen Thompson. Before the recession, she worked at an upscale Los Angeles-area gym arranging pricey one-on-one personal training sessions. Now she's a guard at a women's prison in rural Wyoming.
After the gym laid her off last year, Thompson spent months looking for work. Even fast food restaurants failed to respond to her application. For each opening, dozens of other people seemed willing to work for less money. When she heard that a prison in Lusk, Wyo., (population 1,447) was hiring, she leapt at the chance.
In her new job, she patrols cellblocks and monitors the mess hall. Back in L.A., she never had to worry about inmates with weapons or drug stashes or prisoners getting into fights. Yet she's hardly complaining. It's a job.
"People have to pay the bills, so what we see is people kind of grasping at straws and taking anything that's available," said Matthew Freedman, assistant professor of labor economics at Cornell University.
The desperation of the long-term jobless has rippled through the labor force. More skilled and educated workers have filled clerical or restaurant jobs. So unskilled workers such as teenagers or high school graduates who once held most of those positions have displaced those even lower on the economic ladder, such as immigrants, Freedman noted.
The intensified competition has hurt all workers — even those who are still employed — because it shrinks wages. Employers don't have to pay more to lure workers.
That helps explain why personal income fell 0.1 percent in June, excluding the one-time benefits of the government's stimulus program. Wages have fallen each month since October — a total of 5 percent over the past eight months.
Indeed, many people who have had to downshift to unsavory jobs have found they're now earning less, too.
With two kids to support and just a high school diploma, McRoberts has few options in the job market.
"I feel like I'm not accomplishing much," said McRoberts, who lives with her boyfriend and children. "I'm paying my bills and my rent, but that's it."
A year ago, McRoberts had a good job building tool boxes at Waterloo Industries Inc. The work was fast-paced and fun. And the nearly $14 an hour was plenty for her and her boyfriend to pay the bills.
But as production slowed, Waterloo cut her hours. By February, she was out of a job.
Around Sedalia, some other employers had begun cutting staff, too. The result was a crowded job market and few openings.
As her options dwindled, McRoberts decided to apply at a Tyson Foods Inc. poultry plant. She found work on the "re-processing line," where damaged birds are sent by Agriculture Department inspectors who spot bruises or sores on carcasses.
The plant is wet and noisy. McRoberts worries about injuries when nearby workers use knives to cut birds in a hurry. She fears being sliced during a moment of distraction.
McRoberts spends evenings searching the Internet for other openings, but they are scarce.
"Until things start booming again, I can't go anywhere else," she said. "Otherwise I would."
Work at poultry plants has often been done by recent immigrants, who now face more competition for such jobs.
"It's easy for someone like your middle manager to take on a job at a poultry plant, because they have the skills to do many things. But for the immigrant, that might have been the only option," said Catherine Singley of the National Council of La Raza, an immigrant advocacy group in Washington.
Tyson spokesman Gary Mickelson said the company has seen a rise in applicants at most of its processing plants and "an increase in the qualifications and experience of those applying."
"Some applicants have recently lost jobs or are underemployed and are attracted to the full-time pay and benefits we offer," Mickelson said.
When officials in Stamford, Conn., posted a single position at the local sewage plant, more than 300 people raised their hands — about twice the number who would seek such jobs before the recession.
About 100 of them made the cut and were allowed to take a test and interview. The work: Drying up wastewater sludge and operating chlorine tanks.
After months of unemployment, that job sounded appealing to 26-year-old Gary Cappiello of nearby Norwalk. Cappiello had worked in the maintenance department of a Target store before being laid off in the spring of last year.
"I'm just applying for anything now — even if the job is low-paying or not a comfortable position," he said. "It's just getting to a desperate point. The bills need to be paid."
Recently, he found out he didn't make the cut at the sewage plant.
More fortunate is Ronnie Purtty, 50, who said he's grateful for his new job gathering trash in narrow St. Louis alleyways.
Purtty used to work in the air-conditioned cab of a truck, hauling steel to local factories. He was laid off last fall.
He spent four months looking for work before landing a job in March as a trash collector for the city's "bulk item" crew.
Wearing thick leather gloves, Purtty hauls sodden carpet, moldy mattresses and nail-studded lumber into a truck. As he sorts through mounds of garbage, he watches out for rats, spiders and raccoons.
He isn't complaining. It beats his long months of unemployment.
"I was blessed to get in here," he said.
U.S. Job Cuts in June Deeper Than Forecast, Paychecks Strained
July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June and the unemployment rate rose to the highest in almost 26 years, limiting wages and threatening to erode the consumer spending essential to an economic recovery.
Payrolls declined by 467,000 and followed a 322,000 drop in May, according to Labor Department figures released yesterday in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 9.5 percent, the highest since August 1983. Earnings per hour climbed at a 0.7 percent annual pace on average over the last three months, the smallest gain since records began in 1964.
Stocks tumbled and bond yields fell as investors bet the 18th straight month of job cuts will further sap consumer spending, weakening a recovery from the deepest recession in half a century. The world’s largest economy has lost about 6.5 million jobs since December 2007 as companies from General Motors Corp. to Kimberly-Clark Corp. cut costs.
“The large number of layoffs in June is a warning that the recession still has a way to go before it ends,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “The employment reductions have to slow soon if the economy is to start to rebound.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed down 2.9 percent to 896.42 yesterday in New York. Treasuries rose, sending yields on benchmark 10-year notes to 3.49 percent from 3.54 percent the prior day.
The growing ranks of the jobless are allowing companies to restrain wage growth and cut hours, eroding the consumer spending that makes up about 70 percent of the economy. The average work week fell to 33 hours in June, the lowest level on record, pushing the average weekly paycheck to $611.49, down 0.5 percent since February.
Bargaining Power
“Workers’ bargaining power for wages is evaporating,” said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Outright declines in wages could unravel the recent stabilization we’ve seen in consumer spending and home sales.”
Hourly earnings were 2.7 percent higher than June 2008, the smallest gain since September 2005.
President Barack Obama called the report “sobering news” and said it would take “more than a few months” to turn the economy around.
“While there are continuing signs that the recession is slowing, this is not much comfort to Americans who have lost their job,” Obama said yesterday in a Rose Garden appearance after meeting energy business leaders.
The payrolls decline in June was still well below the peak of 741,000 jobs lost in January, the most since 1949, suggesting a recovery remains likely later this year.
“The huge job losses of the first quarter are well behind us now,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
Growth Forecast
The economy is forecast to expand at a rate of 0.5 percent in the July to September period and 1.9 percent in the final three months of 2009, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg in June.
Orders placed at U.S. factories climbed for a third time in four months in May on rising demand for aircraft, machinery and computers, separate figures from the Commerce Department showed yesterday, reinforcing signs of economic stabilization.
Payrolls were forecast to drop 365,000, according to the median of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 150,000 to 500,000.
The jobless rate was projected to climb to 9.6 percent from 9.4 percent in May. By the end of the year, unemployment will reach 10 percent, according to economists surveyed last month.
Factory Payrolls
The report showed factory payrolls fell by 136,000 in June. The drop included a decline of 26,500 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries. More firings are in the works following the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler LLC as shutdowns ripple through auto-parts makers and car dealers.
Payrolls at builders fell 79,000. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 244,000 workers. Retail payrolls decreased by 21,000 and financial firms reduced 27,000 jobs.
Government payrolls decreased by 52,000, the biggest drop since July 2007. The U.S. Census bureau let go of people hired on a temporary basis to do preliminary work for the 2010 census. The government has said it’ll hire more than 1.4 million people over the next year to conduct the population count that happens once every 10 years.
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has said he’ll force state workers to take a third unpaid day off every month to conserve cash and will order lawmakers into an emergency session to tackle the state’s growing budget deficit.
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Unemployment Rate Dips to 9.4 Percent in July, in Better Than Expected Showing
AP
Friday, August 07, 2009
The new snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also offered other encouraging news: workers' hours nudged up after sinking to a record low in June, and paychecks grew after having fallen or flat lined in some cases.
To be sure, the report still indicates that the jobs market is on shaky ground. But the new figures were better than many analysts were expecting and offered welcomed improvements to a part of the economy that has been clobbered by the recession.
Analysts were forecasting job losses to slow to around 320,000 and the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.6 percent.
The dip in the unemployment rate -- from June's 9.5 percent -- was the first since April 2008.
One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed.
All told, there were 14.5 million out of work in July.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included the unemployment rate would have been 16.3 percent in July. That's down from 16.5 percent in June, which was the the highest on records dating to 1994.
Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6.7 million jobs.
Fewer Layoffs Expected as Recession Eases
Friday, August 07, 2009
WASHINGTON — First, the good news. Workers probably got slapped with fewer pink slips in July as the worst recession since World War II winds down.
Now, the reality check. A paucity of job openings means nearly 15 million unemployed Americans are still looking for jobs, and their ranks are likely to keep growing into 2010.
Labor Department data due out Friday is expected to show job losses slowing in July to a pace of around 320,000, with unemployment rising to 9.6 percent, up from 9.5 percent the previous month. If the job-loss estimate is on target, it would be a heartening improvement from June's 467,000 job losses — and the slowest pace for job losses since August 2008.
Slower job losses are anticipated because companies aren't cutting investment and spending as drastically as they had been during the depths of the recession which came in the final quarter of last year and carried over into the first quarter of this year. And, recent barometers have shown some improvements in manufacturing, housing and construction activity.
The government reported last week that the economy shrank at a pace of just 1 percent from April-to-June, the strongest signal yet that the recession may be ending.
Many analysts predict the economy could start growing again in the current July-to-September quarter. And, the Fed recently observed that the economy is finally showing signs of stabilizing in some regions of the country — especially in parts of the Northeast and Midwest — bolstering hopes of a broader-based recovery this year.
However, the anticipated slowdown in layoffs won't prevent the unemployment rate from rising for the 10th month in a row and to the highest level in 26 years.
The good news, bad news picture in the labor market suggests that employers are feeling more comfortable about slowing down firings but still aren't ready to ramp up hirings.
Companies won't kick up hiring until they are confident a recovery will have staying power. And, the anticipated recovery is expected to be slow. Exactly how it unfolds will hinge partly on the behavior of consumers, whose spending accounts for the single-largest slice of economic activity.
Given rising unemployment, recession-ravaged investment portfolios, and, in some cases, stagnant or falling wages, they are staying cautious.
Fresh evidence of that came Thursday when major retailers reported sluggish sales for July, raising concern about sales during the back-to-school shopping season.
Among the disappointments were Macy's Inc. and teen retailers Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and Wet Seal Inc. Among the few bright spots was discounter TJX Cos., operator of the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains, which reported a sales gain that exceeded Wall Street estimates.
Still, the worst of the job cuts have passed.
The deepest job cuts of the recession came in January, when 741,000 job disappeared, the most in any month since 1949. The economy lost an average of 691,000 jobs each month during the first quarter. That slowed to an average of 436,000 a month in the second quarter. Analysts predict that companies will continue to ax jobs through this year, but they hope that the pace of those reductions will ebb.
Even if that happens, the unemployment rate is likely to top 10 percent this year. Some Federal Reserve officials think it could rise as high as 10.6 percent in 2010. The post-World War II high was 10.8 percent at the end of 1982, when the country suffered through a severe recession.
An elevated unemployment rate could become a political liability for President Barack Obama when congressional elections are held next year. The last time the unemployment rate topped 10 percent, the party of the president — then Ronald Reagan's GOP — lost 26 House seats in the midterm elections in 1982.
Obama has urged Americans to be patient and give time for his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending to take hold. Most of the money will flow in 2010.
When the economy is healthy, employers add a net total of around 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate stable. To get the jobless rate down to a more normal 5 percent range, it would take stronger job growth — of at least 200,000 jobs a month. Economists say it might take until 2013 to drive down the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
"Although the economy seems to be at a turning point, we're not at a turning point for the labor market. That is some way off," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.